The upheaval in Hong Kong and controversy over Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu appear to be working in President Tsai Ing-wen''s favor. The most recent public opinion poll shows Tsai leading the support ratings, with nearly 50% of the vote. Analysts say Han''s best chance at winning would be in a four-way race, which would divide the voter base. But whether the race is two-way, three-way, or four-way, Tsai would have the advantage.As the clock counts down to the 2020 race, candidates from both camps are stepping up to the start line. A new poll from the Cross-Strait Policy Association shows that Tsai would lead the pack with 47.2% of the vote, ahead of Han Kuo-yu’s 31%. Since July, Han’s ratings have dropped 8 percentage points. Fan Shih-pingPolitical science professorRecent cross-strait relations, Chinese suppression of Taiwan, and Hong Kong’s protests against the extradition bill. These factors have burnished the image of Tsai as a fiery pro-Taiwan woman. And then of course, the biggest argument against Han is poor governance. This issue, combined with the matter of his many commitments and controversy of his various faux pas, makes it highly unlikely that he will improve in the polls.Han has bounced from one controversy to another, and his ratings have fallen along the way. In the latest poll, 21.8% of respondents refrained from taking a position. Analysts say this means there is room for a third candidate to dominate the race. But even in a three-way with Ko Wen-je or Terry Gou, Tsai would still be likely to come out on top. Fan Shih-pingPolitical science professorTsai Ing-wen still has room to climb in the polls. For example, if the U.S. more strongly expresses its support for her. Han Kuo-yu would benefit the most from a four-way race. If the presidential election had four contenders, Tsai would see her lead on Han narrow to just 6 percentage points.
The upheaval in Hong Kong and controversy over Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu appear to be working in President Tsai Ing-wen''s favor. The most recent public opinion poll shows Tsai leading the support ratings, with nearly 50% of the vote. Analysts say Han''s best chance at winning would be in a four-way race, which would divide the voter base. But whether the race is two-way, three-way, or four-way, Tsai would have the advantage.As the clock counts down to the 2020 race, candidates from both camps are stepping up to the start line. A new poll from the Cross-Strait Policy Association shows that Tsai would lead the pack with 47.2% of the vote, ahead of Han Kuo-yu’s 31%. Since July, Han’s ratings have dropped 8 percentage points. Fan Shih-pingPolitical science professorRecent cross-strait relations, Chinese suppression of Taiwan, and Hong Kong’s protests against the extradition bill. These factors have burnished the image of Tsai as a fiery pro-Taiwan woman. And then of course, the biggest argument against Han is poor governance. This issue, combined with the matter of his many commitments and controversy of his various faux pas, makes it highly unlikely that he will improve in the polls.Han has bounced from one controversy to another, and his ratings have fallen along the way. In the latest poll, 21.8% of respondents refrained from taking a position. Analysts say this means there is room for a third candidate to dominate the race. But even in a three-way with Ko Wen-je or Terry Gou, Tsai would still be likely to come out on top. Fan Shih-pingPolitical science professorTsai Ing-wen still has room to climb in the polls. For example, if the U.S. more strongly expresses its support for her. Han Kuo-yu would benefit the most from a four-way race. If the presidential election had four contenders, Tsai would see her lead on Han narrow to just 6 percentage points.
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